Permanent Housing Bubbles: A New Phenomenon Courtesy of Globalism


By Prof A Gürãry
Feb 21, 2015

Background

•From 1800s to 2001, real estate prices were 2X median income (regardless of interest rates or inflation)
•2002 start of 1st syncrhonized global housing bubble, a result of globalisation
•2007-2012 housing bubble burst, prices never returned to historical price of 2X median income
•Systemic decline in Western standard of living
•Rise of homeless/opioid/suicide epidemic

What was real estate like before the Housing Bubble?

In the US, and the West in general, housing in major cities (NYC, SF, LA, London...) was owned by the native blue collar working class (low class) because it was affordable. Throughout the history of the US, average price of a new house in a major city (irrespective of interest rates or inflation) was 2X median income, this abruptly changed in 2002. Prior to neoliberal globalism, urban Western families were based on a single-earner working a blue collared job, typically in a factory, where the bread-winner could buy a new brick home by saving 2 years worth of income, in cities like NYC, Boston, LA, SF, Chicago, Sydney, London, Toronto, Vancouver etc... Infact, during the peak of the Dot-com bubble in 2000, you could still buy homes in LA, SF, NYC, Sydney for $150k.

What about interest rates and housing prices?

130 year US price history: house price consistently below 2X median income

During the 90s, interest rates were declining (from 12% to 6%), and home prices were declining in many areas, including California. In the 90s, you could buy a house in LA, San Diego or San Francisco for $80k to $180k. Houses in the Bay Area (Santa Clara) were selling for $35k. The entire Phoenix/Vegas area used to be dirt cheap. People flocked there from other areas of the US almost exclusively because of the cheap prices. You could buy a brand new house in the west valley for $50k. In NYC, you could buy a home from $40k (Williamsburg) to $150k (Bensonhurst). Interest rates and house prices were dropping throughout the 90s. Even during the peak of the Dot-com bubble in the late-90s, you could still buy a home in the Bay Area for less than $160k.

During the 80s, interest rates were declining (from 18% to 9%), and home prices were declining in many areas, including Texas. A friend bought a 2 family NYC house in 1987 for only $50k during the peak of the housing bubble, this house is valued at $1 million (2015). During the 70s, interest rates were increasing (from 2% to 15%) and there was a housing bubble during the rise of interest rates (debunking correlation between rates and price). A friend bought a 4 family NYC house in 1974 for $40k, during the peak of the bubble, this house is now valued at $4 million (2015). During the 50s and 60s post-War housing boom, interest rates were increasing (from 1% to 9%), yet price of a new home remained steady at 2X median income. From the 20s and 40s, interest rates were decreasing (from 6% to 3%), yet price of a new home was BELOW 1X median income.

From analysing historical interest rates and housing prices, we see little to no effect of interest rates on housing prices, since housing prices remained stable at or below 2X median income throughout the increasing and decreasing fluctuations of interest rates.

Can housing bubbles be caused by inflation?

No, housing bubbles are a result of decoupling wages from shelter costs. They occur when price of shelter is hyperinflated respective to wages. Throughout the history of US, price of a new house was at 2X median income; therefore, housing price was coupled at 2X median income. There would be no housing bubble if wages were inflated along, and with respect to, housing cost. A housing bubble can only occur when wages are depressed respective to housing cost.

Why is the current housing bubble so different from previous housing bubbles?

1) The current housing bubble is the LONGEST in history
2) The current housing bubble is a synchronized global phenomenon
3) Cost of housing exceeds all previous housing bubbles by a factor of 100

The current housing bubble started when China entered WTO in 2001, after 9/11. Before 2002, housing prices were declining and the economy was suffering from multiple shocks (9/11, war, dot-com/Enron ponzi bust, surging oil prices, offshoring industries to Asia/LatAm), Bush wanted to prop up the failing domestic economy in order to get re-elected and saw housing as the next bubble after the stock bubble burst. With newly-minted Asian billionaires (via WTO) and fresh supply of millions of migrants, Bush coordinated to lower interest rates and increase migration in order to increase demand to create and sustain a housing bubble. War, ponzies, mass migration, and surging cost of living: this was the culmination of the neoliberal globalisation paradigm shift, and it sent shock waves throughout the world as neoliberal policies opened borders to foreign house buyers and construction workers.

With the post-9/11 globalist paradigm shift, housing markets were no longer domestic. They were opened up to millions of migrants and the newly-minted Asian billionaires (via WTO). Cost of housing in LA, NYC, Sydney, Toronto... surged from $150k in 2000 to over $500k by 2005. Cost of housing in Phoenix/Vegas surged from $60k in 2000 to over $300k by 2005. The hyperinflation of global housing was synchronized from Eurasia to Oceania to Americas, all fueled by migration. Never in history has there been a global housing bubble, not even a housing bubble of this magnitude or duration.

When will this housing bubble end?

A bubble, like a ponzi requires an endless stream of new participants to sustain itself. Previous housing ponzies were limited by the domestic population, and were therefore of much smaller magnitude and duration. The current housing bubble is sustained by open borders allowing foreign participants into formerly localized housing markets. With over 7 billion potential participants, this housing bubble is permanent. There won't be a return to historic norms. Globalism killed the housing market.

Visitor Comments

Alexandra Lutoshkina:
Robert Shiller: "From 1890 to 1990 the appreciation in US housing was just about zero.  That amazes people, but it shouldn’t be so amazing because the cost of construction and labor has been going down"

 

William Chang:
Refresher time

1970- MEDIAN NEW price, $23k
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/uspriceann.pdf

1970- MEDIAN HH income, 9k
https://www.multpl.com/us-median-income/table/by-year

The long term historic price of a NEW house 2.5x annual income. Clearly, a used house is worth far less than a new house. The long term historic price of a USED house is <2 times annual household income.
 

Sean Lavois:

Just wait until you see 1920 cost of living.

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/3912/item/492986?start_page=68

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/20s-homes.html
 

Alan Li:
This list if you add the multiplier to bring the 16K avg income to today's $61,372 (1976 price x 3.813)

New House: $165,255
Average income: $61,372 (actual 2017 data)
New car $17,375
Average rent: $839
Harvard Univ $14,260
 

Jason Cohen:
my friend’s great grandparents owned 3 houses in the LA area, soon as his grandparents inherited them they sold them immediately. This was in the 90s when those houses were worth $100-$150k, those same houses are worth $900k today and the combined rent would be close to $10k/month.

SF was mad cheap before Silicon Valley and the tech booms. All of Daly City was built with GI bills and they're million dollar houses now. For 60 year old GI built suburban homes. It's stupid. San Francisco Bay Area is the most expensive and overrated real estate in the world.

Compton used to be a white, middle-class suburb of Los Angeles until the end of the 1950's. George H.W. Bush lived there with his family in the 50's back when he was in the oil business.
 

Leonid Gin:
The Irony:

In the 50s, 60s and 70s—before US and European offshoring sent 6 million breadwinner jobs to cheap-labor nations, like China—Westerners could pay off a house in just a few  years on ONE income, removing the impossible expense of housing in their less-employable, elderly years. 
Now, most Americans cannot even afford the rent for a crappy, one-room apartment on one, earned-only income stream, and most will have an unaffordable housing expense when elderly despite the fact that all mommas now work, not very hard in their absenteeism-gang “voted-best-for-moms” jobs and their flextime-momma management jobs, but that is another story. 
In march rich people from the “poor,” cheap-labor nations, where so many jobs in US-owned corporations were shipped, and they have no need to chain themselves to 30-year house notes since they can pay in cash for million-dollar ranch homes.

Andreas Schmidt:
Remember how your grandpa or maybe even your dad could work 40 hours a week and have a nice house, a new car every few years, yearly vacation? That lifestyle was stripped away so slaves in Asia could make and sell us cheap shit. Enjoy your never rising wages and ever increasing debt.
 

Mina Al-Khadouri:
A worker in the US with a minimum wage job could buy a house with 8 months of his income in the major cities.

Look at this numbers

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/20s-homes.html
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/bls/bls_0302_1922.pdf

And this numbers are from 1920 when it was less technological and production was lower and harder to do.
 

Justin Palmen:
Back in the Golden Age  America, those "shit jobs" are what 99% of the population used to be able to afford a house and a family on.
 with one income earner per house hold also

ask any boomer what percentage of their annual income their house cost them. The highest I have heard is 125%. Can you imagine how easy it was to make 50k a year household income and buy a 62k house?

They could also buy a house with about a years wages working as a newspaper boy

    My Grandparents bought their first ~1500sqft house with cash while raising 3 kids on a single income from my Grandpa's job at a courrogated box factory...
 

Haim Babayev:
There has been a nonstop housing bubble since millennials have been old enough to be in the market.
 

James Chan:
In early 2000s, they said the massive retirement wave will bring massive job vacancies and everyone will get a sweet job. In reality, they opened the floodgates to Asia/LatAm as they took all those jobs.
Now they promise a boomer die off will lead to massive housing vacancies/cheap housing. In reality, they will continue to flood us w/ Asia/LatAm to hyperinflate the prices.
 

Donik Dodik:
Why do you let in millions of immigrants willing to work for less and wonder why wages are stagnating. Why do you push for women to be career oriented and wonder why wages won't go up for a labor force that has effectively doubled. Why won't you shame fat people and stop promoting degeneracy and drugs even though its very obviously driving up healthcare costs. Why would you impose rent control and zoning restrictions and at the same time open up the borders and act suprised that limited housing is getting more expensive with more demand. Where is the self-awareness.
 

Boris Abdurakhmanov:
 unless you manage to stop immigration, which you won't. There's no housing bubble just infinite equity growth in relation to malthusian scarcity

As long as our governments (US and Canada) keep allowing foreigners to purchase real estate, and let  Chinese, Spic and Indian families immigrate here, then housing prices will continue to rise. As soon as we crank down on immigration and foreign investors, the market will crash.
 

Boris Abdurakhmanov:
95% of houses in our cities were built before 1980s-- and mostly in between 1880-1960.

those houses are where most of the people reside and pay $1million to acquire an old property that was only worth $140k (2X the avg salary in year 2000)

2x median income is the long term historic ratio.
 

Donik Dodik:
for 150 years working class people were able to buy property. It became so ubiquitous that the boomers thought it was automatic and didnt require their maintenance or raising their children correctly to achieve.

This why capitalism needs to be kept on a leash, FDR was based kept America strong, fuck Reagan and all the neoliberal jews that destroyed our country with their short-sited bullshit.
 

Justin Perczak:
It isn't a psy-op, people simply mischaracterize what is coming. It won't be communism. It'll be full blown rentier capitalism where the goys don't own anything and the capitalist classes suck us dry. The vanguard of this was subscription services for media and buying vidya on Steam. You pay, but don't really own shit.

Wealth was distributed in communism, there wasn't a lot of it, but it was distributed and owned by the state. The state doesn't own these assets, they are in private hands, and they wont be distributed In fact, they will be rented out, with no state oversight. Even feudalism didn't have this level of inequality and gap in power relations. It's unprecedented, and calling it communism is exactly what they ZOG system wants you to do. It provides you a fake boogeyman, and the reaction to it will be a call for further privatization and less government oversight and regulation, giving more power to the already totalitarian monolithic of these private Zionist supremacist corporate entities.

I am right about this. You are wrong, and if you challenege this without any proper argument, then you're a zionist supremacist shill pushing the very narrative I am opposing, because it's wrong, and ineffective and downright dangerous in a time where we NEED the right analysis to challenge this ant-white system.

It's not communism. It's not Marxism. Zionist shills label it as such to distort narrative strategy against the system. THIS IS IMPORTANT. The system continues to exclusively use the boogeyman of communism against us. It doesn't exist. Marxism is dead. It's not coming back. This system is a factional Zionist Supremacy, and the neo-liberal progressive faction won the argument, proving that neo-liberal vulture capitalism is the best strategy for continued and expanding Zionist Hegemony. This critique of the system must come from this analysis. If it doesn't, you end up down useless rabbit hole, making unnecessary enemies, and even supporting enemies. Black Rock is a private company, the federal reserve is a private institution, and government oversight of these sovereign institutions of unlimited power is minimal at best. Black Rock was given Federal asset management oversight by the Trump administration. Qtard and MIGAtards at the time claimed this was "TRUMP TAKING BACK THE FED". No, it was Trump giving up whatever small oversight we had over to Black Rock. Black Rock is a hyper-Zionist supremacist hedge fund that now manages the assets of up to a quarter of the entire worlds wealth, and they are using it to buy up American property for the precise purpose of cutting off social mobility from White people. This isn't communism, this is hyper-capitalism. This is a vast private institution, more powerful than any feudal monarchy, seizing all property from the serfs. You will own nothing, and private Zionist corporations will own everything, and you will rent your home and your toaster from them. This isn't Marxism. It's not communism. In fact, it's an unthinkable unprecedented scenario. It's anarchy-tyranny, coupled with an ineffective weak state, which only serves Zionist interests, who run a vast international privatized monetary system to buy state assets and public property using the labor of the masses.
 

Justin Perczak:
Pre-2000s, people had 6%-20% interest rates from just a basic savings account. People had more options for investment: bank savings account, high-yielding T-bills (6%-23%), stocks, housing... pretty much any option would bring great returns. Even during the dot-com bubble, people still got 10% returns from bank savings and housing was still cheap in Cali. Money was basically given to the people. Then US opened to Asia/LatAm, bond yields plummeted to support a globalized bubble, and no feasible investment option for the people was left, even housing became out of reach.
 

Justin Perczak:
How you know of the liquidation will be beneficial to you:
The crash is sudden, the housing market is flooded with cheap houses in Canada, the USA, and Australia, BTC prices crash, and suddenly Chinese speculators running amok in your country begin to vanish.

How you can tell if the liquidation will NOT be beneficial to you:
It is a slow decline, one which drags out just long enough for companies like Blackrock to snap up all the properties right when they go on the market (if there isn't a straight up lateral transfer without ever touching RMLS, don't put it past our jewified market), BTC prices stay stable or decline only a little bit and then shoot back up.

They will want a controlled demolition of this country rather than an outright collapse. An outright collapse would allow the goyim to buy the dip across a wide swath of markets, and they don't want that.
 

Victor Zen Tan:
timeline of events:
•bloomberg/soros/epstein/bossad/china get Clinton into White house •Clinton expands their neolib agenda, prepares US (and the entire West) for replacement via post-apartheid-like policies •end of Clinton's presidency, Clinton moves to NYC to join Soros/Epstein/Bloomberg in their project to transform NYC into the globalist capitol of the planet •in a globalist publicity campaign, kickstarts the hipster movement by moving to Harlem •bush/Clinton/Soros/bloomberg expel the black underclass/White working class and import millions of foreigners to increase the value of the cheap city properties they acquired during the pre-globalist, White blue-collar era of the city •millions of foreigners flood in and property values skyrocket •calls this gentrification/urban revitalization The homelessness crisis is a direct result of neoliberal economic policy

Tim Ran Som:
Macy's Herald Square (34th St and Broadway)
1900: $11million (in 2019 dollars)
2019: $3 billion

This  5-story building was purchased by Robert H. Smith in 1900 for $375,000 (equivalent to $11.3 million in 2019)– an incredible sum at the time – with the idea of getting in the way of Macy's becoming the largest store in the world

The value of  5-story Herald Square building has been estimated at around $3 billion


Their were no surrounding economies for the US to destroy barring Canada and the US mostly left Canada alone.
Fordism worked fine in the US until the 1960's when the US started to import low trust niggers. Before the 1970's a man could graduate from high school, find an idiot factory job, buy a car, buy a house, have kids, wife stays home to watch the kids, pay for his kids college tuition and retire at 60.

 

Donik Dodik:
Bigger banks (GS, JPMorgan) set up that Lehman fail by dumping derivatives into Lehman. Then after Lehman intentionally failed, bought it back for pennies on the dollar and got federal bailout money too

we are the ones who build this country. and some foreigner gets to live like a king on the back off our hard work... not a fucking chance.. all foreign investors should be roped along with everyone who is complicit
 

Donik Dodik:
Everyone homeowner I know who didnt buy their house 20 years ago or isnt independently wealthy is mortgaged up to their eyeballs. They might have their 800k+ dollar house as an "asset", but they have no equity in it yet and theyre living paycheck to paycheck just to pay the mortgage, which they will have to continue paying for another 40 years at least.
Any interest rate increase, any economic slowdown that affects non-retail and they are absolutely fucked. If their house loses any value at all, theyre going to have to declare bankruptcy just to discharge the difference in what they owe.
The bubble is going to burst, its inevitable. House prices are way, way beyond anything close to what they were 13 years ago. Back then I thought 180k for the house down the street was an outrageous price. That same house is now selling for 1.3 million. Theres no way these mortgages are legitimate.
 

Donik Dodik:
I just want everyone to know the median US salary is 34k.

I make 38k a year, and I probably cannot afford a house over 200k.

The way they get you is that most houses under 200k, (the median home price) are trailers, which in many cases do not qualify for a traditional 30 year loan. This means you can do a 15 or 20 year loan, but---

>Oh sorry! Now your debt to income ratio is too high because you're paying 1500 a month of your 2500 post tax income because we won't let you pay 1000 to afford it!
This is the other bullshit way they get you. Debt to income ratio.
 

Donik Dodik:
There are no affordable homes for single people. Stop crying. Stop beating yourself up over it, and find peace with it.

America is now trying to demoralize an entire generation, primarily whites who get no helping hand in this, into committing suicide because they've been convinced they are failures because they can't afford something that has increased 10x since the 70s while their wages have stagnated


their answer? You're just poor. Find a better job. Go become the manager of your company.
 

Donik Dodik:
The average median US wage is 34k. Having a house means everyone has to magically fight to be in the top segment of the pyramid. Its bullshit, its unrealistic, and its unsustainable.

This is basically a genocide through kikery from our absolute garbage government. Dems and liberal politics are the cancer. They put up all the bureacratic red tape and do not do shit to build. All their cities and states are more expensive. Canada can be seen of an example of how the USA going further left in legislating housing means further spiraling into the abyss.

Life will only get worse until revolution happens
 

Donik Dodik:
Housing market is tied up with neoliberalism. You can't get a good housing market without liquidating neoliberalism. That's the mentral hurdle that a lot of cuckservatives can't get over, so this will continue. 
 

Donik Dodik:
They used the economic machine past capacity to build themselves up, now they are taking EVERYTHING! We are of no more use, the economic system is of no more use. We are transitioning to techno-hierarchy with automated production with a carbon reduction goal to save the planet. We are the excess carbon to be reduced so they can have their new eden.

They failed at killing 3 billion useless eaters by 2000. It's even worse now. That's why they are panicking now and are employing the simplest propaganda tools.
The zerg will kill everything in its path.
 

Donik Dodik:
Before 2000, NYU had open admissions - any one from the street could attend NYU back then. I know this because I was a fresh 17 year old immigrant who barely spoke English and enrolled in NYU after 6 months of high school in the US. I took no SAT and had no formal education in America, aand it didn't matter that I was poor and spoke no english.

If I immigrated to the US in 2000, I would not have this opportunity. I would most likely be homeless.

Since 2000, NYU started catering to the rich and powerful - it was part of a greater globalist process of transforming NYC into a playground for the oligarchs.

All sectors of our economy have decreased since 2008 except for housing. All GDP growth year over year comes from housing.